Rolling launch-to-handover view
Peg the model to your acquisition date; the rolling current month advances automatically as time passes. Use today's view to decide, or set a future month to model 'what about next quarter?'.
Off-Plan Rolling-Return Calculator
Should you assign now, or hold to handover? A month-by-month model of value, cash deployed and cost of money, built so the answer is unambiguous — with the data, charts and comp lookups behind it.
Designed for Dubai off-plan but works for any market. Same model used by analysts at family offices to validate assignment quotes against the underlying economics — now usable without a spreadsheet open.
Used by British investors holding Dubai off-plan. Models the decision in AED, shows walk-away cash in your own currency, and runs the same scenario stress-tests an asset manager would on a UK BTL — for property you can’t walk past on the way to work.
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The decision
One number tells you whether to hold.
The model computes the incremental value of holding to handover— the net handover proceeds, minus today’s sell-now proceeds, minus remaining developer payments, minus the cost of money over the rest of the project. Positive means hold wins. Negative means assign now.
Incremental value of holding
+AED 54,045
Holding to handover is AED 54,045 better than assigning today, after remaining payments + future cost of money. Break-even handover value: AED 1,230,000 (a 23% premium to launch).
Illustrative numbers from the calculator’s default Dubai scenario.
What’s inside
Month-by-month growth
Default to a single annual rate, or layer growth periods on the forward view. Model bearish windows, recovery, accelerated demand — every month gets its own rate if you want it.
Cost of money built in
Equity opportunity cost AND borrowed-portion interest accrue monthly on the cash you've deployed. Economic profit always net of what your money could have earned elsewhere.
Editable payment plan
Edit each milestone by month OR by calendar date — two-way bound. Match your developer's SPA exactly; defaults to the canonical Dubai 20/10×5/30 plan.
Scenario snapshots
Lock today's assumptions as your day-one baseline. As the market moves and you revise growth, see exactly how today's projection differs from the original.
Live value-path chart
Current projection (solid) vs original snapshot (dashed) vs cumulative cash paid, with NOW and HANDOVER markers. Your observed-resale quote appears as a single dot at the current month for instant divergence checks.
Live market comps via DLD
Run the Transaction Radar against your area + bedrooms + project name; the calculator pulls comparable transactions from Dubai Land Department and pushes the median straight back into your current-value field.
Branded PDF export
Decision summary + assumptions + sell-now / hold-to-handover ladders + payment plan + monthly timeline + sources. Use it as the underwriting brief for a broker or family-office conversation.
Today vs original comparison
When a snapshot exists, the PDF gains a comparison page: original vs current handover value, delta in pp, economic-profit delta, plus the forward growth periods you've added.
Methodology
Built on the same model brokers walk in with.
Value curve. price × (1 + annual growth)m/12 × (1 + de-risk × m/handover) — compounded market growth plus a linear construction-risk premium that unwinds from 0 at launch to the full de-risk amount at handover. Growth can be overridden per month via forward-growth periods.
Cash paid to date.Sum of every developer milestone that’s landed up to the current month, plus upfront launch fees (DLD registration · admin · agency). Verified against the reference spreadsheet to the cent.
Sell-now economics. Your full market value minus exit friction minus the outstanding developer balance — the buyer takes on that obligation as part of the assignment, so you receive the value less the balance, not the gross. Economic profit subtracts cost of money to date.
Hold-to-handover. Projected handover value less remaining payments and the full cost of money from launch. The difference between hold and sell-now — incremental value of holding — is the answer.
Cost of money. Accrues monthly on prior-month equity AND borrowed-portion deployments. Equity uses your opportunity-cost rate (what your cash could earn elsewhere); borrowed cash uses your borrowing rate.
See your own scenario in under 5 minutes.
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